Gamma process model for reliability analysis and replacement of aging structural components

نویسندگان

  • M. D. Pandey
  • J. M. van Noortwijk
چکیده

The time-dependent reliability analysis to model age-related deterioration is necessary to support strategic planning and optimization of civil engineering infrastructure systems. The paper presents a stochastic gamma process model to account for temporal variability associated with a deterioration process and its impact on the optimal age of replacement. The proposed method is more versatile than the randomvariable deterioration rate model commonly used in the structural reliability literature. The paper presents an intuitive interpretation and a comparison of assumptions associated with the random variable and gamma process deterioration models. Numerical results are presented about the optimal age of replacement of structural components. 1 The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support to this research by Natural Science and Engineering Council of Canada.

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تاریخ انتشار 2005